Composite Systems Decisions (Decision Engineering)

Book Preface

Professor A.P. Ershov has defined a skill in programming as the second literacy [235]. He has pointed out that in the centuries since the creation of printing machines, a majority of population have got the skill to read, to write, and to account, and this was the first literacy. In the 1960s and 1970s, the number of people who could develop software and apply computers increased, and this was a stage of the second literacy [235]. Recently, a majority of the population have obtained skills in computer technologies. What will be next? In recent years we have seen many new software packages and information systems, computer networks and distributed computing, knowledge-based systems. What is crucial now? Let us examine the stratification of contemporary computer technology as follows: (1) hardware, communication equipment; (2) software; (3) stratum of algorithms and interactive procedures (algorithm-ware); (4) mathematical models (model-ware); (5) information systems (data, knowledge); and (6) application problems. In my opinion, obtaining good decisions for applied problems is the main result of computer/information technologies. In 1970s and 1980s, theories concerning the analysis and design of effective algorithms (e.g., complexity theory) were focused on bottlenecks in computer technology. Now there are bottlenecks at application stratum. Note, humans play primary roles not only as users, but also as sources of information (e.g., expert, specialist), researcher, decision maker.

Thus we get the following:

Stage 1. Description and modeling of applied situations.
Stage 2. Generation, analysis, and selection of decisions.

In my opinion, skills to implement these two stages above on the basis of modern computer/information technologies constitutes the third literacy (Table 1.1). In other words, this is a crucial step to the culture of thinking, planning of organization and creative activities, and implementation of the culture in today’s life.