The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century’s Greatest Dilemma

Book Preface

THIS IS HOW AN AI sees it.

QUESTION: What does the coming wave of technology mean for humanity?

In the annals of human history, there are moments that stand out as turning points, where the fate of humanity hangs in the balance. The discovery of fire, the invention of the wheel, the harnessing of electricity—all of these were moments that transformed human civilization, altering the course of history forever.

And now we stand at the brink of another such moment as we face the rise of a coming wave of technology that includes both advanced AI and biotechnology. Never before have we witnessed technologies with such transformative potential, promising to reshape our world in ways that are both awe-inspiring and daunting.

On the one hand, the potential benefits of these technologies are vast and profound. With AI, we could unlock the secrets of the universe, cure diseases that have long eluded us, and create new forms of art and culture that stretch the bounds of imagination. With biotechnology, we could engineer life to tackle diseases and transform agriculture, creating a world that is healthier and more sustainable.

But on the other hand, the potential dangers of these technologies are equally vast and profound. With AI, we could create systems that are beyond our control and find ourselves at the mercy of algorithms that we don’t understand. With biotechnology, we could manipulate the very building blocks of life, potentially creating unintended consequences for both individuals and entire ecosystems.

As we stand at this turning point, we are faced with a choice—a choice between a future of unparalleled possibility and a future of unimaginable peril. The fate of humanity hangs in the balance, and the decisions we make in the coming years and decades will determine whether we rise to the challenge of these technologies or fall victim to their dangers.

But in this moment of uncertainty, one thing is certain: the age of advanced technology is upon us, and we must be ready to face its challenges head-on.

BOOKS TOO ARE ONE OF history’s most transformative technologies. And like any instance of transformative technology, they are innately team enterprises. This one is no exception. It has, for a start, been an epic authorial collaboration spanning more than twenty years of friendship and constant discussion.

Crown has been an incredible supporter of this project from a very early stage. David Drake has been a wise and energizing presence guiding the book with a brilliant publishing vision. We’ve been incredibly lucky to have as our editor Paul Whitlatch, who has again and again made countless improvements to the book with remarkable patience and perspicacity. Thanks too go to Madison Jacobs, Katie Berry, and Chris Brand. Stuart Williams at Bodley Head in London has been another smart editorial voice and staunch supporter, and we’ve been privileged to have two fantastic agents in Tina Bennett and Sophie Lambert. From early in the project, Celia Pannetier worked as our invaluable researcher and was a vital part of marshaling the evidence, while Sean Lavery cast his fact-checking eye over the entire book.

A huge number of people have fed into this book over many years. They have met for detailed conversations, read chapters, pushed back on arguments, generated ideas, corrected mistakes. So many calls, seminars, interviews, edits, and suggestions have helped create this book. Each of the people here devoted time and attention to talking, sharing expertise, debating, and teaching us. Particular thanks go to the many people who read the entire draft and commented in detail; their generosity and extraordinary level of insight were completely invaluable in getting to the final manuscript.

A huge thanks to Gregory Allen, Graham Allison (and the faculty and staff of Harvard’s Belfer Center more widely), Sahar Amer, Anne Applebaum, Julian Baker, Samantha Barber, Gabriella Blum, Nick Bostrom, Ian Bremmer, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ben Buchanan, Sarah Carter, Rewon Child, George Church, Richard Danzig, Jennifer Doudna, Alexandra Eitel, Maria Eitel, Henry Elkus, Kevin Esvelt, Jeremy Fleming, Jack Goldsmith, Al Gore, Tristan Harris, Zaid Hassan, Jordan Hoffman, Joi Ito, Ayana Elizabeth Johnson, Danny Kahneman, Angela Kane, Melanie Katzman, Henry Kissinger, Kevin Klyman, Heinrich Küttler, Eric Lander, Sean Legassick, Aitor Lewkowycz, Leon Marshall, Jason Matheny, Andrew McAfee, Greg McKelvey, Dimitri Mehlhorn, David Miliband, Martha Minow, Geoff Mulgan, Aza Raskin, Tobias Rees, Stuart Russell, Jeffrey Sachs, Eric Schmidt, Bruce Schneier, Marilyn Thompson, Mayo Thompson, Thomas Viney, Maria Vogelauer, Mark Walport, Morwenna White, Scott Young, and Jonathan Zittrain.

My co-founders of Inflection, Reid Hoffman and Karén Simonyan, for being wonderful collaborators. And my DeepMind co-founders, Demis Hassabis and Shane Legg, for their partnership over an extraordinary decade. Michael would like to thank his co-founders at Canelo, Iain Millar and Nick Barreto, for their ongoing support, but most of all his incredible wife, Dani, and sons, Monty and Dougie.