Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling, and Economics

Book Preface

In statistical terms, extreme events can be defined as events that largely deviate from the statistical mean. From the physical point of view, it is widely accepted that such events are generated by systems that are both nonlinear and complex. Due to their infrequent occurrence, on the one hand, and to the complexity of the processes involved, on the other, extreme events have been difficult to study and, even more so, to predict. For these reasons, their analysis has mainly focused on studying their frequencysize distribution, while their prediction has been limited, by-and-large, to applying extreme value theory (EVT) to estimate the expected time intervals for the occurrence of an event that exceeds a certain threshold. It has become clearer and clearer, though, that the applicability of classical EVT theory to complex and nonlinear phenomena may be limited, while novel methods for their study are becoming available.

This monograph aims to present an overview of methods recently developed for the description, understanding and prediction of extreme events across a range of phenomena in the geosciences, with an emphasis on the study of their socio-economic impacts. It is the outcome of four American Geophysical Union sessions on Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling and Economics, held in 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2013. The editors of this volume organized these four sessions in order to examine the broad topic of extreme events in the geosciences from an interdisciplinary perspective. The primary objectives of these sessions were to provide an open forum for the theoretical and empirical developments that could improve: (i) the understanding, modeling and prediction of extreme events in the geosciences, as well as (ii) the quantitative evaluation of their economic consequences. Most of the articles in this monograph emerged from these four AGU sessions.

The monograph covers the causes and consequences of extreme geophysical phenomena like space weather, asteroid impacts, climatic change, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, landslides, volcanoes, and flooding; it also addresses their associated socio-economic impacts, locally, regionally and globally. The understanding and modeling of these phenomena is critical to the development of timely strategies worldwide for the prediction of natural and anthropogenic extreme events, in order to mitigate their adverse consequences.

We would like to dedicate this Monograph to the memory of V. Keilis-Borok (1921–2013) and of Emilio Rosenblueth Deutsch (1926–1994) for their visionary contributions in the geosciences and in seismic risk engineering.

Contents

Contributors……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….vii
Preface……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….xi
Acknowledgments………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………xiii
1 Introduction
Mario Chavez, Michael Ghil, and Jaime Urrutia‐Fucugauchi…………………………………………………………………..1
Part I: Fundamentals and Theory 7
2 Applications of Extreme Value Theory to Environmental Data Analysis
Gwladys Toulemonde, Pierre Ribereau, and Philippe Naveau…………………………………………………………………9
3 Dynamical Systems Approach to Extreme Events
Catherine Nicolis and Gregoire Nicolis…………………………………………………………………………………………….23
4 Skill of Data‐based Predictions versus Dynamical Models:
A Case Study on Extreme Temperature Anomalies
Stefan Siegert, Jochen Bröcker, and Holger Kantz……………………………………………………………………………….35
5 Detecting and Anticipating Climate Tipping Points
Timothy M. Lenton and Valerie N. Livina…………………………………………………………………………………………..51
6 Understanding ENSO Variability and Its Extrema: A Delay Differential Equation Approach
Michael Ghil and Ilya Zaliapin………………………………………………………………………………………………………..63
Part II: Extreme Events in Earth’s Space Environment 79
7 Drivers of Extreme Space Weather Events: Fast Coronal Mass Ejections
Alexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, and Stilian Stoev……………………………………………………………………….81
8 Chicxulub Asteroid Impact: An Extreme Event at the Cretaceous/Paleogene Boundary
Jaime Urrutia‐Fucugauchi and Ligia Pérez‐Cruz………………………………………………………………………………….93
Part III: Climate and Weather Extremes 113
9 Weather and Climatic Drivers of Extreme Flooding Events over
the Midwest of the United States
Andrew W. Robertson, Yochanan Kushnir, Upmanu Lall, and Jennifer Nakamura……………………………………115
10 Analysis of the Hazards and Vulnerability of the Cancun Beach System:
The Case of Hurricane Wilma
Edgar Mendoza, Rodolfo Silva, Cecilia Enriquez‐Ortiz, Ismael Mariño‐Tapia, and Angélica Felix……………….125
11 Observations and Modeling of Environmental and Human Damage Caused
by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
Kazuhisa Goto, Fumihiko Imamura, Shunichi Koshimura, and Hideaki Yanagisawa…………………………………137
12 Extreme Capillary Wave Events Under Parametric Excitation
Michael G. Shats, Hua Xia, and Horst Punzmann……………………………………………………………………………..153

Part IV: Extreme Events in the Solid Earth 163
13 A Review of Great Magnitude Earthquakes and Associated Tsunamis along
the Guerrero, Mexico Pacific Coast: A Multiproxy Approach
María‐Teresa Ramírez‐Herrera, Néstor Corona, and Gerardo Suárez……………………………………………………165
14 Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy and Its Geographical and Temporal Variations
Paola Salvati, Mauro Rossi, Cinzia Bianchi, and Fausto Guzzetti………………………………………………………….177
15 An Extreme Event Approach to Volcanic Hazard Assessment
Servando De la Cruz‐Reyna and Ana Teresa Mendoza‐Rosas……………………………………………………………..195
Part V: Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Events 205
16 Economic Impact of Extreme Events: An Approach Based on Extreme Value Theory
Richard W. Katz………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….207
17 Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and Their Direct Economic Impacts: A Hybrid Approach
Mario Chavez, Eduardo Cabrera, Silvia Garcia, Erik Chavez, Mike Ashworth,
Narciso Perea, and Alejandro Salazar……………………………………………………………………………………………..219
18 Tropical Cyclones: From the Influence of Climate to Their Socioeconomic Impacts
Suzana J. Camargo and Solomon M. Hsiang…………………………………………………………………………………….303
19 Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy
Andreas Groth, Patrice Dumas, Michael Ghil, and Stéphane Hallegatte……………………………………………….343
Part VI: Prediction and Preparedness 361
20 Extreme Tsunami Events in the Mediterranean and Its Impact on the Algerian Coasts
Lubna A. Amir, Walter Dudley, and Brian G. McAdoo………………………………………………………………………..363
21 High‐Tech Risks: The 2011 Tôhoku Extreme Events
Heriberta Castaños and Cinna Lomnitz ………………………………………………………………………………………….381
22 On Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events: Pattern Recognition Approach;
Prediction Algorithms; Applications to Disaster Preparedness
Vladimir Keilis‐Borok, Alexandre Soloviev, and Andrei Gabrielov…………………………………………………………391
Index……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….407